Maximum Dice Roll
Citadel
You roll 8 6-sided die. What's the probability their maximum is exactly 5?
Answer
First note that it is relatively easy to compute probability that max is smaller than some number, since that simply means all rolls are smaller than that number, i.e. $$P(max\leq 5)=P(X_1\leq 5)\cdot P(X_2\leq 5)\cdot ... \cdot P(X_8\leq 5)=(5/6)^8$$This is because the dice are identical and for one to be smaller or equal to 5 there are 5 possibilities (numbers 1 to 5). Okay, so it is straightforward to compute $P(max \leq k)$ for any k. So how can we use this to find our answer?
Well we need a way to express maximum being exacly 5 in terms of statements of the form 'maximum is smaller or equal to k'. Well let's simply set the upper and lower bounds: maximum has to be smaller or equal to 5, and it has to be greater than 4. Greater than 4 is the opposite of smaller or equal to 4. In turn, we can write this as: $$\{max=5\}=\{max\leq 5\}\land\{max\gt 4\}=\{max \leq 5\}\backslash \{max \leq 4\}$$Note that event '$max \leq 5$' is implied by '$max \leq 4$' since if you're below 4 you're definitely below 5. Therefore the event '$max \leq 4$' is fully contained in '$max\leq 5$'. That means we can compute the chance of max below 5 but not max below 4 as: $$P(max\leq 5)-P(max \leq 4)$$As we've already seen, these terms can be computed easily. Denoting X a single dice toss, we have: $$P(max\leq 5)=P(X \leq 5)^8=\left(\frac{5}{6}\right)^8$$ and similarly: $$P(max\leq 4)=P(X \leq 4)^8=\left(\frac{4}{6}\right)^8$$Therefore we can find the solution as: $$\left(\frac{5}{6}\right)^8-\left(\frac{4}{6}\right)^8\approx 0.19$$