St Petersburg Game
Goldman Sachs, Flow Traders
You roll a die until you get the first heads. You get a payoff of 2^n where n is however many trials it took you to get the first head. How much should you pay to play this game?
Answer
To answer how much you should pay to play this, we need expected value of the game. So what are all the possible outcomes and payoffs? We can get H straight away with probabiliy $\frac{1}{2}$, in which case we receive the payoff of $2^1$. We can finish the game with 2 flips, if we get TH. The chance of this is $\frac{1}{2^2}$ and the payoff is $s^2$. The game could finish after three flips only if we get TTH, as we must have only Ts before the first H. This is one of the $2^3$ possible outcomes of a 3-coin flip, so the chance of this is $\frac{1}{2^3}$ and the payoff is $2^3$.
Put these together to notice the pattern:$$E(U) = \frac{1}{2}2 + \frac{1}{2^2}2^2 + \frac{1}{2^3}2^3 + ... = \sum_{\infty} 1$$So we should pay an infitie amount to play this game? Of course not, but we haven't made a mistake. This game is a well-known case of the St. Petersburg paradox, demonstrating the limits of using expected value. Daniel Bernoulli proposed a solution to the paradox by introducing the utility function, which discounts marginal utility as our payoff grows. you can read more here.